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青蛙学园参考资料

股票筛选For Dummies
（内部资料）


版权所有：MIT_Chinook@hotmail.com
谢绝转载，张贴
10/21/2007


前言


本篇是上篇“平民选股”的姊妹篇。阅读对象是那些绝对的新新手。其主要目的是通过具体的操作，来展示俺自己股票筛选(Screening)的流程。每个人用的Filters都不一样，所以绝对不能说俺以下用的就是对的。希望大家具体问题具体分析，慢慢建立你自己的Screening Filter and Process。

开始

一个常见的问题就是从哪里开始找股票候选对象呢？
Online Stock Screener Tool
首先，如果你手里什么都没有的话，那直接去一些网站的Stock Screener page好了，具体地，俺常用以下两个网址：
· http://screener.finance.yahoo.com/newscreener.html
· http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp
它们的用法非常简单，依次设立自己的PE, Growth, Market Cap, Last 3 months price change 等等filter就行了。
News/Analyst Reports
我们平时多多少少都会读写经济，科技，投资方面的文章，如果其中讲到些公司，你觉得不错，那不妨把tickler记下来。
有时你读analysts分析报告，他们时常会提到sector players, 或者是有关联的公司，如果你觉得发展前景会不错的话，也可以把这些ticklers记下来。比如，俺看TIE的headlines时，看到这么篇文章：
7 Growth Stocks on Sale (http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/09/26/7-growth-stocks-on-sale.aspx)
那俺只要有时间，肯定会进去看看他们是在讲哪7个公司。然后大致看下这些公司怎么样。
IBD 100
这个是付费的list. 好处是能上此名单的公司的FA都是比较令人放心的，缺点是很多已经是run得差不多了股票名单。你跳进去被变成bag holder的机会也不是一般的大。所以呢，还是要做自己的功课，看看哪些是还有很大空间继续run的。
BBS Board
能被人在BBS上提及的公司，至少提交人是做过一点功课的。尤其是一些比较有credit的ID，他们的初审已经帮你filter out了很多不好的因素，这样你在次基础上再做功课的话，找到有潜力的公司的可能就更大了些。


Screening

自己看到的tickler, 一定要自己也再次研究贯彻，才能成为自己所熟悉的tickler。我个人一般用Yahoo Finance，所以下面就以Yahoo Finance为例，说明下怎么run俺的screening. Tickler俺选TIE作例子.

Step 1: Go to http://finance.yahoo.com
Input TIE, and “Get Quotes”
Step 2: Check Analyst Estimates
Analyst Estimates is always first thing I want to check.
1. Same quarter year-to-year Earnings Estimate shoud be growing, same does the annual Earning Est.
Current Q $0.39 vs $0.29 year ago; $1.61 current year vs $1.53 last year; next year is $2.01, Great!

By the way, if Next Year’s earnings estimate is negative, I will not do further research. Rule: don’t invest money on a company will lose money for the next TWO years.





2. Next 5 years Growth Est
25%! Good.



Step 3: Check Key Statistics
There are quite some critical indicators you want to check in this table.

1. Market Cap: 5.32B, not small garbage one, good
2. Forward P/E is 16.31, good.
3. Total debt is 0, good
4. Return on Equity: 36.74, good
5. Operating Cash Flow: 113.48M, good
6. Short % of Float: 5.5%, good.
7. Held by Inst: 35%, good



Step 4: Check Competitors

A quick look of this table shows TIE does have 2 big competitors, and ATI has lower PE. Does this mean ATI is cheaper than TIE? Maybe not, because the PEG of TIE is only 0.79, and ATI carries a PEG of 0.9. This shows TIE’s growth is better than ATI’s.
Till now, we can only say TIE is okay in the sector comparing with its competitors. However, it is really important to go further and check the detailed product comparisons between TIE, ATI and RTI. It is not rare that the competitors listed in Yahoo are not direct competitors with the company we are interested. More work need to be done for this area, Mark Mark.


Step 5: Check Analysts Comverage

This chart shows the most recent analysts opinion on the stock are 3 buys and one neutral, which is pretty good.
Analyst’s mean price target is 41.5, this is significantly higher than the current stock price, good sign too.


Step 6: Check Insider Transactions

This table shows quite good insider purchases and net institutional purchases, while the sell size is 0, very very POSITIVE sign.

Step 7: Check Financial Report
To be specific, check those 3 tables: Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow. Detailed check process has been described in the “平民选股“部分，so I would not repeat again here.
Summary is “Good”.

Step 8: Check Profile
Go check the Business summary in this page, looks they are doing some business I can understand.
Go check the Key Executives table and check how many they have exercised last year, it is NA, so we might need to do further research. Basically I don’t like the shares they have exercised more than 2M, comparing with TIE’s size. The more, the more greedy of the executive team (In most cases).


Step9: Check Chart

The past 12 months chart didn’t show much stock price change. There was a bottom in mid-August, but however, this was caused by the broad market sell off. So not a specific concern of TIE.
My reading is the stock still under consolidation, and TA point of view, if it can break 35, then there is a big chance stock will start to run up there.

Step 10: Check Headlines
Now it is the time to read what have happened for TIE in the past few months, go to http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=TIE and if you spend next 30 minutes to one hour, probably you will find below useful news:
a. News on 10/19, TIE is just added to S&P 500, Man, this is a bomb!
b. News on 10/12., Allegheny Stumbles on Weak Outlook. ATI is TIE’s peer, but you might find that TIE is focus on Titanium, but ATI’s news is on “standard stainless sheet” which might not have direct impact on TIE
c. News on 10/10: Boeing Suppliers Fall. This will have direct impact on TIE because of Boeing’s delay of 787. Is that very serious? No, a few months’ delay should be okay.
d. …
e. ….

Conclusion:
After checked all above, I came out the conclusion that TIE is a good company with cheap stock price, good growth and strong balance sheet, insider purchase shows strong confident on their business, etc etc. News side, its recent join to S&P 500 club will also bring tons of index fund buyers. Downsie, ATI’s recent warning might show some kind of weakness in the sector, and Boeing’s 787 delay might have direct impact on TIE’s earning in the next one to two quarters.
Based on all these, I would decide make TIE a good buy candidate.


进一步研究

好，迄今为止，TIE这个tickler基本上通过了我们的screening。但是不是我们马上就可以买TIE了呢？答案是否定的。但你肯定可以把它加到你的watch list里去了。以下是还要继续研究的问题。
Read Analysts Report
If you have some kind of premium service or you have golden brokerage account, they should have some brief analyst reports on this stock. Go get and read them.
Go to Message Board
Go check what are people talking about this company form online message board like Yahoo or InvesterVillage.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/tie
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=399&clear=1&pt=m
Normally please forget those price target pumper/dumpers, find those post that only describe the fact, you will see lot of very useful information to answer the questions we had in Screening stage:
· What is the edge for TIE comparing with its competitors like ATI?
· Why the stock didn’t’ quite move a log in the past year?
· What is the reason caused the stock flew so high before May 2006? Are those reason still counts?

Follow the Stock Price Change
In the next few weeks, you might want to follow TIE’s stock price change daily or hourly (if you have time J), try to understand how TIE behaves comparing with the broad market, the news coverage or analyst reports on it.
If you do this daily, I believe in one to two months, you will grasp a very good sense on how is TIE’s stock price change, is that caused by itself or weak/strong market? Or by some unknown reasons?

So, after one month to 2 months observation, you will be able to make the call:
Should I buy and hold TIE for the next one year? JJ

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