泡网俱乐部

竞争能力
一个企业的竞争能力决定了企业的生存能力，盈利能力和发展能力。所以是俺本人必不可少的研究方面之一。不管是多么好的行业，如果是很容易引起激烈的同行竞争，那最终的结果只能是大家大搞价格战，然后margin大幅降低，然后弱者导致亏损出局，而强者也多半会伤痕累累，股价惨遭打击。
一个突出的例子是前几年的hard disk制造业，本来随者IT行业的快速发展，对硬盘的需求极大。但由于企业制造能力的飞速提高和制造商的百花齐放，所以导致硬盘的价格成反比例的加速下滑。最终结果是几家主要的制造商倒的倒，merge的merge，最终只有有限的几家活了下来。同样的情况，也适用于现在的memory制造商，大家可以去查MU最近两年的衰落史。
从投资者的角度来讲，俺最喜欢的公司是没有竞争对手或对手实力根本不匹配的公司，也就是所谓的monopoly；其次就是虽有强大的对手，但有独门最新技术的公司；还有就是有专利技术的公司。
· Please find out who are the biggest competitors for the company

· Check what is the target company’s edge in their product/services: are they just good or much better? Do they have some secret weapon to take market share from the competitors?

· Are their products/services easy to be adopted by customer? In an extreme example, think about Microsoft and Google: even some new OS is much better than Windows, but I believe the customers will not like to replace their OS soon due to the training cost, software compatibility issue etc etc; in Google’s case, if some day wikiPedia’s search engine shows much better relevancy search return? Google might lose more than 90% of their traffic in 3 months.

· Can other company easily copy their products/business model?

· Do they have patent(s) to block other players entering the field?

行业情况
不论什么时候，你希望你要选择投资的公司在一个蓬勃发展，欣欣向荣的行业里面。当行业在发展的时候，所有的players都会跟着取得进步。这个你可以看看最近一年的船运行业，DRYS/EXM/TBSI等等，一荣具荣的表现淋漓尽致。


财务状况

俺不是finance出身，所知道的财务分析并不多。但在看股票的时候，简单的财务报表还是一定要看的。俺常用的网站是yahoo finance，上面具体的报表有三个：
Balance Sheet
这个表上俺会大致看如下几个：
1. Cash And Cash Equivalents is good, I like this number bigger than Total Current Liabilities
2. Total Stockholder Equity for the past few quarters has been increasing steadily
3. Net Tangible Assets definitely should be positive
4. Inventory for the past few quarters is stable, any recent big up or down change should raise your alarm, and you want to find out why
Income Statement
这个比较容易看，俺大致会看看过去的几个季度Total Revenue是增长的而不是降低的；至于bottom line，最好都是正数，如果有一两个负数，俺也不会太担心。
Cash Flow
这个快，俺基本就看一点，”Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities” 过去的几个季度应是正的。
还有一些基本的数字在Key Statistics部分可以看到，对那一快，俺喜欢的情况是：
· Total Cash Per Share is good
· Book Value 起码是正数
以上都是一些最基本的数据，任何一项不达标，俺都希望知道是为什么，同时对该公司的情况加了一个大大的问号。还有一点要说明的是以上是最最基本的看法，随者你对公司研究的增加，你应该回来再次review这些表。尤其是Cash Flow部分。



活跃性

活跃性这个词，是俺独创的。你可以给它很多的比较容易的解释，比如说你可以说是它的知名度，生命力，也可以说是它的analysts coverage情况，大众关注程度，trader交易程度，媒体coverage, analysts opinion乃至于insider transaction, short ratio等等。说到底，就如同是好莱坞明星的知名度情况。
没人会喜欢一个从没有人关注的股票，如果你是做长期的投资，这个没什么问题。但为追求效率，俺选股的原则之一就是希望一年内能看到成效，所以才有了这个活跃性的说法。
· I really like companies have lots of insider purchases recently
As you probably know, no one knows the company than those insiders, their top executives. If they put lots of money with the company, you might want to follow them.

· I also like companies have relatively high short ratios
7~30% is best numbers I want to see. This is little bit bizarre. But well, if you have followed the pick rules and you know it is a good company, the short positions will give that stock a tremendous power to push the stock higher and quicker – when the short cover starts.

· I like to see lots of institution holdings but not too much
if there is not a lot inst. Holding, say less than 10%, I would say the stock quality has some problem, if it is too much, say more than 95% (number less short effect), then who will be the new buyers to push up the stock?

· I like companies have at least 3 analysts coverage, no analyst coverage? Just say bye bye to the stock immediately.

· I like companies have at least half million daily trading volume.
No trading volume stock is dead stock, period.

· I like companies have headline news every week also.
If there is no news for the company for a month, most time I would seriously ask WHY?

另一方面，俺谨慎看待炙手可热的股票。对那种股票，俺会马上祭起Forward PE和Growth预期的法宝，看看是否已经overvalue了，如果是的话。它将最多是俺的短期swing目标，但不会是pick的对象。对炙手可热的股票，很多也就是他们的高潮进行曲，也是hold了很长时间的Inst.出货的时间，如果你TA好，跑得快，可以take advantage of MM’s push up and get some quick cash, Buy and hold? Heck no!
对于分析师意见，俺的经验是不可不看，但不能全信。同理适用于怎么看待分析师给出的target price
· I like to see there are more buy side recommendations than neutral or negative
· I like to see the stock price is still below average analyst target price





野鸡TA

呵呵，俺是第一个用这个名词的吧？野鸡TA，就是说俺不懂TA。但简单的趋势线，volume变化还是要看的。既然俺不懂，所以说的也就会极其简单。
A. I like to stocks has just picked up the uptrend after a long time consolidation period

B. I like to see the stock once up’ed a lot with huge volume, and now they are in quiet period

C. I like to see stock with slow but stable uptrend for quite a while

D. I don’t like pick stocks still in the downtrend. Catching falling knife is always a bad thing, even the stock FA is really good, better wait for the stock stabilized or show some kind of uptrend.
作为几个例子，以下是俺推荐过的几个股票在开始推荐时的chart.
OVTI (2/12/2007): D type



TASR (5/20(?)/2007): A type


NVT (7/4/2007): B Type:



BGC (9/13/2007): D type:


USU (8/13/2007): lesson learned for catching a falling knife!

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